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全球经济复苏明年还能持续吗?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月23日 15:34:34
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(中)(国)(当)(下)(的)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(状)(态)(
中)(国)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(仍)(处)(于)(筑)(底)(的)(过)(程)(中)(,难)(言)(已)(经)(彻)(底)(走)(出)(L型)(的)(走)(势)(。预)(计)(2018年)(中)(国)(GDP增)(速)(在)(6.5%左)(右)(,略)(低)(于)(今)(年)(的)(6.8%上)(下)(。消)(费)(增)(速)(仍)(在)(10%左)(右)(,但)(投)(资)(增)(速)(与)(出)(口)(增)(速)(均)(可)(能)(温)(和)(回)(落)(。通)(胀)(方)(面)(,CPI增)(速)(有)(望)(温)(和)(上)(行)((2018年)(约)(在)(2.2-2.3%左)(右)(),但)(PPI增)(速)(可)(能)(快)(速)(回)(落)(至)(3.0%左)(右)(。
宏)(观)(政)(策)(方)(面)(,财)(政)(政)(策)(的)(宽)(松)(力)(度)(有)(望)(显)(著)(减)(弱)((这)(主)(要)(源)(自)(对)(地)(方)(政)(府)(举)(债)(与)(PPP的)(治)(理)(),货)(币)(政)(策)(存)(在)(一)(定)(温)(和)(放)(松)(的)(空)(间)((对)(冲)(财)(政)(政)(策)(收)(紧)(与)(金)(融)(强)(监)(管)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)()。10年)(期)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(可)(能)(维)(持)(在)(4%左)(右)(,呈)(紧)(平)(衡)(盘)(整)(态)(势)(,进)(一)(步)(上)(行)(的)(空)(间)(不)(大)(,但)(也)(很)(难)(显)(著)(下)(滑)((考)(虑)(到)(明)(年)(美)(国)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(可)(能)(显)(著)(上)(行)()。
中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(新)(Xh?(さ恪)(⑿露)(狴茉)(谀)(睦)(铧)(br />中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(新)(动)(能)(至)(少)(有)(三)(。一)(是)(消)(费)(升)(级)(,随)(着)(人)(均)(收)(入)(接)(近)(10000美)(元)(,未)(来)(中)(国)(经)(济)(将)(会)(迎)(来)(阶)(段)(性)(的)(消)(费)(升)(级)(机)(遇)(。从)(整)(体)(上)(而)(言)(,对)(服)(务)(品)(与)(高)(端)(制)(造)(品)(的)(消)(费)(将)(会)(显)(著)(上)(升)(。然)(而)(,制)(约)(消)(费)(升)(级)(的)(一)(大)(问)(题)(,是)(居)(民)(部)(门)(收)(入)(分)(配)(差)(距)(显)(著)(拉)(大)(。未)(来)(需)(要)(通)(过)(各)(种)(措)(施)(来)(纠)(正)(收)(入)(分)(配)(的)(过)(度)(失)(衡)(。
二)(是)(创)(新)(驱)(动)(的)(投)(资)(浪)(潮)(,预)(计)(未)(来)(中)(国)(政)(府)(会)(在)(研)(发)(与)(创)(新)(领)(域)(投)(入)(更)(多)(的)(资)(源)(,市)(场)(也)(在)(研)(发)(创)(新)(领)(域)(存)(在)(很)(大)(的)(热)(情)(。然)(而)(,需)(要)(克)(服)(政)(府)(人)(为)(推)(动)(大)(规)(模)(创)(新)(计)(划)(或)(创)(新)(实)(验)(区)(的)(冲)(动)(,创)(新)(驱)(动)(仍)(需)(要)(市)(场)(力)(量)(的)(引)(领)(,否)(则)(这)(可)(能)(导)(致)(巨)(大)(的)(资)(源)(浪)(费)(。
三)(是)(更)(具)(包)(容)(性)(的)(城)(市)(化)(进)(程)(以)(及)(服)(务)(业)(向)(民)(营)(资)(本)(更)(加)(充)(分)(的)(开)(放)(。这)(一)(方)(面)(需)(要)(尽)(快)(实)(施)(公)(共)(服)(务)(均)(等)(化)(以)(及)(推)(动)(土)(地)(流)(转)(改)(革)(,另)(一)(方)(面)(需)(要)(打)(破)(国)(有)(企)(业)(对)(教)(育)(、医)(疗)(、养)(老)(、金)(融)(、电)(信)(等)(服)(务)(业)(部)(门)(的)(事)(实)(性)(垄)(断)(,真)(正)(向)(民)(间)(资)(本)(开)(放)(这)(些)(市)(场)(。
中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(“黑)(天)(鹅)(”和)(“灰)(犀)(牛)(”
目)(前)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(系)(统)(性)(金)(融)(风)(险)(主)(要)(分)(布)(在)(三)(个)(方)(面)(。第)(一)(是)(与)(房)(地)(产)(相)(关)(的)(风)(险)(,如)(果)(未)(来)(房)(地)(产)(价)(格)(显)(著)(下)(行)(,可)(能)(对)(商)(业)(银)(行)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(、地)(方)(政)(府)(财)(政)(收)(入)(、中)(产)(阶)(级)(名)(义)(财)(富)(与)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(增)(速)(产)(生)(显)(著)(负)(面)(压)(力)(。要)(化)(解)(房)(地)(产)(风)(险)(,一)(方)(面)(需)(要)(出)(台)(可)(能)(改)(变)(居)(民)(对)(房)(价)(预)(期)(的)(长)(效)(重)(拳)((例)(如)(房)(产)(税)(、显)(著)(增)(加)(土)(地)(供)(给)(、大)(力)(发)(展)(租)(赁)(市)(场)(),另)(一)(方)(面)(也)(需)(要)(避)(免)(调)(整)(措)(施)(过)(于)(猛)(烈)(从)(而)(引)(发)(房)(价)(大)(幅)(下)(行)(;最)(后)(还)(得)(避)(免)(政)(策)(迟)(迟)(没)(有)(出)(台)(最)(终)(导)(致)(一)(、二)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(报)(复)(性)(反)(弹)(。
第)(二)(是)(与)(地)(方)(政)(府)(债)(务)(有)(关)(的)(风)(险)(。有)(统)(计)(表)(明)(,过)(去)(三)(年)(间)(中)(国)(地)(方)(政)(府)(可)(能)(又)(新)(增)(了)(20多)(万)(亿)(的)(债)(务)(,而)(这)(一)(次)(的)(债)(务)(上)(升)(主)(要)(通)(过)(PPP的)(形)(式)(进)(行)(。解)(决)(地)(方)(债)(问)(题)(,既)(需)(要)(对)(地)(方)(政)(府)(加)(强)(债)(务)(与)(融)(资)(方)(面)(的)(硬)(约)(束)(,也)(需)(要)(给)(地)(方)(政)(府)(开)(源)(,解)(决)(房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(下)(地)(方)(政)(府)(财)(权)(与)(事)(权)(之)(间)(缺)(口)(加)(剧)(的)(问)(题)(。
第)(三)(是)(影)(子)(银)(行)(风)(险)(问)(题)(,目)(前)(主)(要)(是)(银)(行)(同)(业)(风)(险)(问)(题)(。这)(一)(块)(风)(险)(,是)(中)(央)(政)(府)(从)(去)(年)(年)(底)(以)(来)(重)(点)(抓)(的)(,应)(该)(说)(目)(前)(已)(经)(得)(到)(较)(好)(地)(控)(制)(,进)(一)(步)(恶)(化)(的)(概)(率)(不)(大)(。
金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(会)(出)(现)(什)(么)(样)(的)(失)(控)(风)(险)(
目)(前)(,企)(业)(部)(门)(杠)(杆)(率)(似)(乎)(得)(到)(了)(一)(定)(的)(控)(制)(,整)(个)(企)(业)(部)(门)(杠)(杆)(率)(似)(乎)(开)(始)(企)(稳)(甚)(至)(回)(落)(。但)(企)(业)(部)(门)(杠)(杆)(率)(毕)(竟)(仍)(在)(高)(位)(,不)(能)(掉)(以)(轻)(心)(。更)(重)(要)(的)(是)(,去)(杠)(杆)(是)(否)(是)(在)(去)(效)(率)(更)(高)(的)(民)(营)(企)(业)(的)(杠)(杆)(?事)(实)(上)(,对)(于)(企)(业)(杠)(杆)(率)(不)(能)(一)(概)(而)(论)(。我)(们)(应)(该)(允)(许)(效)(率)(更)(高)(的)(企)(业)(有)(加)(杠)(杆)(的)(能)(力)(与)(自)(由)(。
目)(前)(地)(方)(政)(府)(杠)(杆)(率)(上)(升)(得)(很)(厉)(害)(,PPP与)(棚)(改)(在)(这)(个)(过)(程)(中)(推)(波)(助)(澜)(,应)(该)(得)(到)(充)(分)(重)(视)(。此)(外)(,居)(民)(部)(门)(杠)(杆)(率)(最)(近)(上)(升)(很)(快)(,尽)(管)(绝)(对)(水)(平)(不)(高)(。然)(而)(,居)(民)(杠)(杆)(在)(中)(国)(的)(分)(布)(并)(不)(均)(匀)(,一)(、二)(线)(城)(市)(的)(居)(民)(杠)(杆)(率)(远)(高)(于)(三)(、四)(线)(城)(市)(。
更)(重)(要)(的)(是)(,中)(国)(政)(府)(有)(充)(分)(应)(对)(企)(业)(部)(门)(违)(约)(的)(经)(验)(,但)(没)(有)(充)(分)(应)(对)(居)(民)(部)(门)(违)(约)(的)(经)(验)(。未)(来)(,一)(旦)(房)(价)(下)(行)(与)(利)(率)(上)(升)(造)(成)(大)(面)(积)(居)(民)(部)(门)(贷)(款)(违)(约)(,中)(国)(政)(府)(应)(该)(如)(何)(处)(置)(?目)(前)(似)(乎)(应)(该)(未)(雨)(绸)(缪)(。
作)(者)(为)(中)(国)(社)(科)(院)(世)(经)(政)(所)(研)(究)(员)(、平)(安)(证)(券)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(、中)(国)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(论)(坛)(理)(事)(
来)(源)(:界)(面)(新)(闻)(返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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